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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."