This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

Just two months prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Elation

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

An Unstoppable Force

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

  • The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
  • The winger could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.

Danny Lane
Danny Lane

An international relations analyst with over a decade of experience covering geopolitical trends across Europe and Asia.

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